Future Land Cover Scenarios
** DRB2100 Version 3.1 Documentation and Downloads are coming soon! **
This new data product builds off of DRB2070 2.0. DRB2100 3.1 extends the time horizon for land use change projections to 2100 under two future scenarios: a “corridors” scenarios, which is a future scenario that assumes high population growth driving sprawling urban growth along major transportation corridors, and a “centers” scenario, where lower population pressure, strong land conservation strategies, and smart growth policies concentrate development in existing towns and urban centers. Like DRB2070 2.0, urban growth projections were modeled with the SLEUTH land change modeling software. Urban classes from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2011 layer were used as the baseline.
For the Delaware River Basin, visualization of urban growth in 2100 is available in Model My Watershed, where users can see the probability that a particular location will experience urbanization under a selected scenario. To visualize baseline and forecasted development, navigate to the “Coverage Grid” tab of the “Layers” Panel. Users can overlay “DRB2011 Urban Baseline,” “DRB 2100 Urban Centers FX,” or “DRB 2100 Urban Corridors FX.”
Products coming soon for DRB2100 3.1 include:
- Full documentation of DRB2100 3.1
- Digital spatial data that show the projected probability of development in 2100 across four scenarios
- Digital spatial data files that summarize projected land cover change across all NLCD classes for four scenarios for HUC 12 watersheds and small catchments
- An ArcMap document that allows for easy visualization for users of desktop GIS software
- An Access Database that summarizes trajectories of change in tabular and graph form for HUC 12 watersheds and small catchments
DRB2070 Version 2
DRB2070 Version 2 represents a revised baseline forecast and two alternative forecasts (“corridors” and “centers”) of urban land cover in the Delaware River Basin (DRB) out to the year 2070. To develop these forecasts, we calibrated the SLEUTH urban growth model for the entire 43 county region of the DRB over the 2001-2006 time period, and validated the model for the 2006-2011 time period.
DRB2070 Version 2 baseline & alternative land cover scenario data are available in the following formats (updated 4/10/18):
- ArcGIS online tool to explore DRWI Cluster Development: https://arcg.is/1neLqS
- Data files for GIS professionals as proportion developed for NHDPlus catchments (2001, 2011, 2030, 2070) with ArcMap document (.mxd) for quick visualization: Download (~20 MB)
- Supplementary documentation: product description, DRWI webinar, and presentation slides.
Our collaborators at the USGS modeled land cover to 2070 using the Chesapeake Bay Land Change Model. A comparison of these two products will soon be available to review. In the long term, we hope that our data can be integrated into the Stream Reach Assessment Tool.
Let us know how you anticipate using our mapping and modeling tools!
High-Resolution Land Cover Data
- High-Resolution Land Cover (basin-wide)
Delaware River Basin and Chesapeake Bay Watershed– UVM SAL, 2016
- High-Resolution Land Cover (43 intersecting counties)
Delaware River Basin– UVM SAL, 2016
- High-Resolution Land Cover (individual counties)– or use this interactive map
Delaware River Basin– UVM SAL, 2013
- High-Resolution Land Cover (New Jersey)
Delaware River Basin– UVM SAL, 2017
- High-Resolution Land Cover (Pennsylvania)
Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Delaware River Basin– UVM SAL, 2013
- High-Resolution Land Cover (Delaware)
Delaware River Basin– UVM SAL, 2016
Data is also available for the Delmarva peninsula through the Chesapeake Conservancy.