US-IALE 2017 Annual Meeting– Baltimore, MD
DRB 2070: Lessons learned from basin-wide land use change forecasting (4/12/2017)
C. Jantz*, S. Drzyzga, P. Claggett, A. Yáñez Morillo, A. Price, J. Barth, D. Minnick, C. Lucas
This paper provides an overview of a recently completed project to forecast urban land use change to the year 2070 within the Delaware River Basin, a major river basin located on the densely populated East Coast of the United States. Among other ecosystem services, the DRB provides drinking water to the major East Coast cities of Philadelphia and New York. With urbanization pressure in the southern part of the DRB, and recreational and energy infrastructure development in the north, drivers of land use change are heterogenous and, in some cases, contentious. We engaged with dozens of governmental and non-governmental stakeholders, end-users, and scientists across the DRB to analyze historic land use and socio-economic change trends, gather quantitative forecast data, and develop narratives for future land use and socio-economic trajectories. We present an overview and focus on some of the key lessons learned from this effort: 1) Broad stakeholder engagement represents a critical investment of time and resources that pays off in terms of model development, dissemination, and adoption; 2) Given the short time frame of this 2.5-year study, taking an informed “triage” approach was necessary and comes with both costs and benefits; 3) For experts and non-experts alike, imagining a future more than 30 years out is a difficult but necessary challenge.
US-IALE 2017 Annual Meeting– Baltimore, MD
A community-driven approach to developing future land use scenarios at the river basin scale: An example from the Delaware River Basin (4/12/2017)
A. Price*, C. Jantz, S. Drzyzga, A. Yáñez Morillo, D. Minnick, J. Barth, C. Lucas
The Delaware River Basin (DRB) region hosts more than 8.2 million residents and provides ecosystem services that support multiple – and sometimes competing – commercial, industrial, recreational and residential uses. Land use change scenarios are plausible stories about how land uses in a region might change over time. Our approach to forecasting land use change in the DRB out to 2070 is both data driven (i.e. informed by quantitative analyses of past land use change and best available data for future trends) and community driven (i.e. using stakeholder input to develop narratives of future land use scenarios). We developed and followed a tiered and iterative approach for engaging community stakeholders. First, we asked stakeholders to share perceptions of future opportunities and challenges using a series of focus groups and a basin-wide survey. Next, we held a focused workshop with a representative group of key experts. Using both qualitative and quantitative data as guidance, we collaboratively wrote a “recent trends” land use change scenario and two alternative future scenarios, each with divergent population forecasts, development patterns, and conservation values. Information gathered for these narratives was also structured by our quantitative and spatially explicit modeling framework, so that the narratives could easily be translated into modeling inputs. As we have moved into the quantitative modeling phase, we continue to consult our end users to ensure that the land use change model outputs are both useful and useable, a time consuming but important process to maximize adoption and use.
US-IALE 2017 Annual Meeting– Baltimore, MD
Modeling suitability for urban development in the Delaware River Basin (4/12/16)
A. Yáñez Morillo*, S. Drzyzga, C. Jantz, J. Barth, A. Price
Urban growth models (UGMs), such as SLEUTH, have been used successfully to predict future land use change scenarios for optimal watershed management, protection, and landscape planning. A common input to many of these models is a layer that describes suitability for urban development; this layer, which is a model in and of itself, becomes critical for the UGM’s accuracy and credibility. The inherent complexity of urban systems is especially challenging to model in broad scale studies, such as large river basins, where rural, suburban, urban and metropolitan systems can coexist and interact. In these cases, researchers and decision-makers need to develop new approaches that address drivers of urban development across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We developed a theoretically informed hierarchical methodology where suitability factors such as topography, accessibility, and land protection are combined with growth drivers, such as population and employment. Our resulting suitability model was successfully validated based on historic data, and our framework allows us to incorporate forecast data from divergent land use scenarios of the future. The suitability modeling framework was developed and applied in Delaware River Basin and Delmarva Peninsula to build several exclusion-attraction scenarios to feed the SLEUTH model.
US-IALE 2017 Annual Meeting– Baltimore, MD
Modeling the extent of future storm surge inundation under two sea level rise scenarios (4/10/17)- Poster Session
J. Barth*, S. Drzyzga
Flooding from storm surge and sea level rise pose significant threats to life and property in coastal communities and have far reaching social and economic consequences farther inland. Stakeholders in an urban land use change modeling project recently expressed a desire to include the possible extent of storm surge inundation under future sea level conditions. Geographic information systems provide valuable tools for assessing future risks of flooding due to storm surge and sea level rise, however, datasets that combine sea level rise and storm surge are limited in availability and restricted in use by the appropriateness of modeled scenarios. This study modifies Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Maximum of the Maximum Envelope of High Water (MOM) surfaces to include two sea level rise scenarios, 0.6m and 1.8m, for New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and the Delmarva Peninsula. Three storm surge surfaces corresponding to Category 1, 2, and 4 hurricanes were interpolated using Ordinary Kriging and then combined with the sea level rise scenarios to produce six inundation rasters at 10m resolution. The produced rasters will be used as an exclusion layer in an urban land change model. This product also increases the number of options available to regional planners performing initial assessments of future storm surge inundation scenarios, and will be made available as a stand-alone product via the Pennsylvania Spatial Data Access (PASDA) portal.
Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting- Boston, MA
Flood hydrology in the Delaware River Basin: Geographic variability and institutional adaptation to changes in climate and land cover (4/5/2017)
Major floods in the Delaware River Basin (DRB) have been associated with tropical cyclones, late-winter and early-spring extra-tropical cyclones (including rain-on-snow events), and summer-fall convective storms. This research investigated historical floods equaling or exceeding the 10-year event as recorded at USGS gages for 33 sub-watersheds of the DRB, classifying over 300 events according to flood generating mechanism. Tropical cyclones generated the majority of flood events with recurrence intervals greater than 50 years, as well as a substantial number of lower magnitude floods. Results indicate that flood-generating mechanisms vary with watershed scale, local significance of snowpack, topography, and land cover. Future changes in temperature, precipitation, and land cover will affect flooding differently across the DRB. Institutional responses aimed at reducing flood risk need to acknowledge uncertainly and change in flood magnitude and frequency, with local land use controls a potentially powerful risk management tool.
11th Annual Susquehanna River Symposium– Lewisburg, PA
“A Tale of Two Rivers: The Susquehanna & Delaware”
Land Use Dynamics in the Delaware River Basin (11/12/16)
C. Jantz*, S. Drzyzga, A. Yáñez Morillo, A. Price
The Delaware River Basin is an important region that hosts more than 8.2 million residents and provides ecosystem services that support multiple commercial, industrial, recreational and residential uses. The purpose of the project is to provide useful tools to decision makers across the 43 counties that intersect the basin in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. The tools include: a) a
high-resolution (1m) LiDAR-based land cover dataset for all 43 counties that cover, in whole or in part, the basin; b) geoprocessing tools for evaluating and visualizing alternate scenarios of future land cover changes; and c) a feasibility study that gauges the willingness and abilities of stakeholder groups to participate in a long-term monitoring program. This project is one of many funded by the William Penn Foundation to develop tools and on-the-ground projects in support of Basin-wide water quality restoration and protection. In this paper we will describe our overall project, which includes collaborations with the University of Vermont and the USGS, as well as what we have learned so far regarding land use dynamics in the Basin.
4th Annual Delaware River Watershed Forum– Bluebell, PA
Basin-wide data products and models to support climate change planning (9/20/16)
With support from the William Penn Foundation, we are developing a land cover mapping, modeling, and monitoring system for the Delaware River Basin in support of maintaining and restoring water resources. Our high-resolution (1m x 1m) LiDAR-based land cover data and alternative future land use scenarios will be available for the entire watershed. Under a new grant from the Delaware Watershed Research Fund, next year we will begin work to connect models of land cover change, climate change, hydrology, and tree species to address the impact of future development and environmental change in the DRB. The purpose of our project is to provide synoptic, consistent, and reliable data to support science-based decision making and long-term planning across the 43 counties that intersect the basin.
2016 International Society for Landscape, Place, & Material Culture Conference- Bowling Green, KY
Perceptions of landscape values and threats in the Delaware River Basin (9/16/16)
C. Jantz*, A. Price, S. Drzyzga, D. Minnick
In the Delaware River Basin, water is the center of $25 billion in annual economic activity, including recreation, water quality, water supply, hunting and fishing, ecotourism, silvaculture, agriculture, open space, and port activities. Landscape values underpin many of these activities and reflect competing cultural perspectives on how resources should be used or managed. This research explores how conservation practitioners, land use planners, and other related professionals value landscapes across the 13,500 square mile river basin, with a focus on what they perceive are the basin’s greatest strengths and weaknesses, and future challenges and opportunities. Data from a series of 5 workshops held through the basin were analyzed using text data mining software. Data were also collected via surveys and analyzed quantitatively. Results revealed a series of complex and interrelated resource management themes, ranging from the importance of local food production to funding for technology and data collection. Strengths and weaknesses were often acknowledged to be “two sides of the same coin,” with perceived economic opportunity often competing with landscape preservation goals. This is most apparent in the energy sector, where development of solar and wind farms and exploitation of natural gas resources competes with a desire to preserve intact forests and beautiful vistas. We also found geographic differences in landscape values and perceived threats. These results illustrate 1) landscape values reflect competing views on resource management; 2) perceived strengths and weaknesses are geographically variable, indicating that they are contextualized by the day-to-day experiences of individuals. These findings have implications for how basin-wide management goals and strategies can be effectively defined and communicated.
2016 PA GIS Conference– State College, PA
Delaware River Basin Project (5/17/16)
S. Drzyzga*, C. Jantz
This 2-year project aims to develop a land cover mapping, modeling, and monitoring system for the Delaware River Basin in support of maintaining and restoring water resources. The project is addressing specific needs that were identified by the Science of Source Water Workshop, which was organized by the Pinchot Institute, the Common Waters Fund, and other stakeholders. The presenters will share information about all three phases of the project include: a) high resolution land use/land cover mapping; b) forecast modeling of land use/land cover change; and c) long-term monitoring; as well as information about the data products we are sharing via PASDA and other clearinghouses.
US-IALE 2016 Annual Meeting- Asheville, NC
Developing future land use scenarios for the Delaware River Basin (4/4/16)
C. Jantz*, S. Drzyzga, A. Yáñez Morillo, A. Price, J. Barth
The Delaware River Basin (DRB) is an important region that hosts more than 8.2 million residents and provides ecosystem services that support multiple commercial, industrial, recreational and residential uses. Watershed planning is particularly difficult because so few watershed boundaries are co-located with or nested within political boundaries. Maintaining and restoring water quality requires balancing stakeholder interests and considering alternate short- and long-term futures. To address this need, we are developing future land use scenarios for the DRB out to the year 2070. Our approach to forecasting land use change is both community driven (i.e. we incorporate information from a wide variety of stakeholder groups) and data driven, informed by quantitative analyses of past land use change and the best available data sources for future trends. Through a series of stakeholder workshops, we have learned that stakeholders: 1) perceive strongly that their regional identity is fragmented across multiple sectors: economics, land use change trajectories, land use management objectives, and water resource management objectives; 2) recognize several future opportunities (i.e., recreational development) and threats (i.e., climate change), but divergent opinions on how they might play out within the watershed. These perceptions are largely validated by our own analyses of employment, population, housing, and land use change trajectories, which reveal highly heterogeneous patterns. We present this foundational work and share some discussion of the next phase of our project: translating our workshop findings into scenario narratives and, ultimately, into quantitative modeling inputs.
US-IALE 2016 Annual Meeting- Asheville, NC
The SLEUTH Wizard: Python scripts to automate the SLEUTH urban growth model (4/4/16)- Poster Session
A. Yáñez Morillo*, C. Jantz, T. Erickson
SLEUTH (Clarke, Hoppen, and Gaydos 1997) is one of the more broadly applied models for the study of land use change and urban dynamics. When the model is being applied to a large region, it is often desirable to partition the study area into sub-regions, such as states, counties, or watersheds. This sub-regionalization greatly increases the workload, requiring the preparation of each sub-region’s input data sets and run parameters and then evaluating multiple output files for each sub-region. To solve this problem, we developed two Python scripts that automate much of the workflow, saving time and minimizing user error. To use the scrips, the user must first have all of the base data sets prepared for the entire study area. The first script uses arcpy to extract the information for user-specified sub-regions (e.g. counties or watersheds) and then stores it in the correct format, using the correct naming convention, in a directory system that is ready to use for SLEUTH. The second script, called SWizard, is able to perform calibration, validation, and prediction automatically depending on the user needs. To demonstrate the SWizard capabilities, we applied SLEUTH to the continental United States, using counties as our sub-regions, at a resolution of 360m. Extracting the input data for 3,109 counties took 1 hour 6 minutes, while running SWizard on a single Linux desktop computer took 19 hours and 23 minutes. We were thus able to model urban land change for the entire continental US in less than 24 hours.
2015 Pennsylvania Geographical Society Conference– West Chester, PA
The Delaware River Basin Project (11/6/15)
S. Drzyzga*, C. Jantz, A. Yáñez Morillo, A. Price
The Delaware River Basin Project (drbproject.org) is a collaborative effort among scientists at Shippensburg University, the University of Vermont, and the U.S. Geological Survey. The purpose of the project is to provide useful tools to decision makers across the 43 counties that intersect the basin in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. The tools include: a) a high-resolution (1m) LiDAR-based land cover dataset for all 43 counties that cover, in whole or in part, the basin; b) geoprocessing tools for evaluating and visualizing alternate scenarios of future land cover changes; and c) a feasibility study that gauges the willingness and abilities of stakeholder groups to participate in a long-term monitoring program. The land cover data will be made available to the general public at no charge. The Delaware River Basin is an important region that hosts more than 8.2 million residents and provides ecosystem services that support multiple commercial, industrial, recreational and residential uses. Watershed planning is particularly difficult because so few watershed boundaries are co-located with or nested within political boundaries. Maintaining and restoring water quality requires balancing stakeholder interests and considering alternate short- and long-term futures. This paper describes the region and project in fuller detail.